The Science of Deception
The best deception is no deception; it is truth itself.
But then there is no pay off.
The farther a deception is from the truth, the easier it is for the deception to be detected; the closer, the harder. When the deception is exactly the truth, it is impossible for anyone to detect. By definition, the truth does not deceive.
But then there is no pay off. People deceive in order to gain advantage—advantage that they do not normally have if they tell the truth. Since the perfect deception is the truth, no advantage is gained by engaging in perfect deception.
So, if you are in the business of deception, the most rewarding deception is a little short of the truth. You stay with the truth which in fact is a deception up to the last minute. You arrange things in such a way that the huge gain you plan on making occurs in the very last minute. So just before the last minute, you abandon the deception and run off with the gain before the last minute expires.
This is how conmen run their confidence games. They train you in trusting them with money, starting with small sums. After this trust has been established, a day will come when you trust them with a large sum. At that point, the deception ends. They disappear with your money.
From the con man’s point of view, it is crucial that they succeed in disappearing. If not; if they are caught; their huge gain disappears. Remember Bernie Madoff?
Trump is a conman. But he also believes he can always win by doubling down. He is now reaping the consequences of this contradiction: You can’t win if you do not disappear. But if you disappear; if you are out of the game; you can't double down.
What a genius!
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Cryptanalytic Method Omnibus Edition: Follow clues and develop new clues from old.
What are clues? Clues are the characteristics of structures, sometimes disguised.
To crack a cipher, you first have to create it. Through trial and error. Guided by clues.